{ "schemaVersion": 1, "updatedAt": "2026-10-24T03:41:36Z", "method": { "formula": "estimate = claimDate + (promisedDate - claimDate) * multiplier", "multiplier": 2.37, "multiplierSample": 12, "multiplierNote": "Median delay of Elon Musk's delivered public promises (12 delivered of 19 tracked, data/elon-time.json). Undelivered and cancelled promises are excluded, so the true multiplier is likely higher.", "sourceDoc": "docs/research/2026-10-20-elon-time-track-record.md", "spacexMultiplier": 3.03, "lowMultiplier": 1.5 }, "moonReady": { "estimateYear": 2050, "lowYear": 2041, "highYear": 2056, "basis": "Elon Musk (X post), 2026-02-08: a city on the Moon by 2036. x2.37 -> ~2050; x1.5 -> 2041; SpaceX-only x3.03 -> 2056.", "countdownTarget": "2050-01-01" }, "milestones": [ { "id": "crewed-lunar-flyby", "order": 1, "title": { "en": "Humans fly around the Moon", "zh-Hant": "人類繞月飛行", "zh-Hans": "人类绕月飞行" }, "status": "done", "doneAt": "2026-04-10", "official": null, "estimate": null, "sources": [ { "name": "NASA", "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-welcomes-record-setting-artemis-ii-moonfarers-back-to-earth/" } ] }, { "id": "starship-orbit", "order": 2, "title": { "en": "Starship reaches orbit", "zh-Hant": "Starship 進入軌道", "zh-Hans": "Starship 进入轨道" }, "status": "done", "doneAt": "2026-09-28", "official": null, "estimate": null, "sources": [ { "name": "Astronomy.com", "url": "https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/" }, { "name": "Satellite Today", "url": "https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/28/spacexs-starship-reaches-orbit-cuts-10-hour-mission-short-after-engine-issue/" } ] }, { "id": "ship-catch", "order": 3, "title": { "en": "Tower catches the ship", "zh-Hant": "發射塔接住船體", "zh-Hans": "发射塔接住船体" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2026-11", "claimedBy": "Elon Musk", "claimedAt": "2026-10-10", "quote": "Flight 15 hopefully in 4-6 weeks" }, "estimate": { "label": "late 2026", "year": 2026.9 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Tesla North", "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/10/elon-targets-starship-flight-15-ship-catch-in-4-6-weeks" } ] }, { "id": "orbital-refueling", "order": 4, "title": { "en": "Refueling in orbit", "zh-Hant": "軌道上加油", "zh-Hans": "轨道上加油" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2026-12", "claimedBy": "NASA (planning)", "claimedAt": null, "quote": null }, "estimate": { "label": "2027–2028", "year": 2027.5 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration" } ] }, { "id": "uncrewed-lunar-landing", "order": 5, "title": { "en": "Starship lands on the Moon (uncrewed)", "zh-Hant": "Starship 無人登月", "zh-Hans": "Starship 无人登月" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2027-10", "claimedBy": "NASA (Artemis update, Oct 23 briefing)", "claimedAt": "2026-10-23", "quote": "Q4 2027 — Uncrewed Starship HLS lunar landing demonstration" }, "estimate": { "label": "early 2029", "year": 2029 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Time", "url": "https://time.com/7373155/elon-musk-mars-moon-city/" }, { "name": "NASA timeline (via Douglas Messier)", "url": "https://douglasmmessier.substack.com/p/see-nasas-aggressive-moon-landing" }, { "name": "TeslaNorth", "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/23/starship-moon-lander-cabin-nasa/" } ] }, { "id": "crewed-lunar-landing", "order": 6, "title": { "en": "Humans walk on the Moon again", "zh-Hant": "人類重返月面", "zh-Hans": "人类重返月面" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2028", "claimedBy": "NASA (Artemis IV)", "claimedAt": "2026-02-27", "quote": "Early 2028 — First crewed landing on Artemis IV (lander to be determined)" }, "estimate": { "label": "mid 2030", "year": 2030.5 }, "sources": [ { "name": "CNN via KVIA", "url": "https://kvia.com/cnn-other/2026/02/27/nasa-abruptly-adds-a-new-step-to-its-path-to-moon-landing-as-a-race-with-china-looms/" }, { "name": "NASA timeline (via Douglas Messier)", "url": "https://douglasmmessier.substack.com/p/see-nasas-aggressive-moon-landing" }, { "name": "Scientific American", "url": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasa-lays-out-a-packed-14-day-schedule-for-2027s-artemis-iii-moon-mission/" } ] }, { "id": "permanent-base", "order": 7, "title": { "en": "People live at a Moon base", "zh-Hant": "月球基地有人長住", "zh-Hans": "月球基地有人长住" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2032", "claimedBy": "NASA (Moon base phase 3)", "claimedAt": "2026-05-26", "quote": null }, "estimate": { "label": "late 2039", "year": 2039.7 }, "sources": [ { "name": "FOX6", "url": "https://www.fox6now.com/news/nasa-moon-base-phase-plan-timeline" }, { "name": "BNN Bloomberg", "url": "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/24/nasa-to-spend-us20-billion-on-moon-base-cancel-orbiting-lunar-station/" } ] }, { "id": "moon-city", "order": 8, "title": { "en": "A Moon city opens to everyone", "zh-Hant": "一般人可住的月球城市", "zh-Hans": "普通人可住的月球城市" }, "status": "pending", "doneAt": null, "official": { "date": "2036", "claimedBy": "Elon Musk (X post)", "claimedAt": "2026-02-08", "quote": "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years" }, "estimate": { "label": "~2050", "year": 2049.6 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Time", "url": "https://time.com/7373155/elon-musk-mars-moon-city/" }, { "name": "The Space Review", "url": "https://www.thespacereview.com/article/5160/1" } ] } ], "feed": [ { "id": "2026-10-23-griffin-moon-lander-passes-key-tests", "date": "2026-10-23", "milestoneId": null, "title": { "en": "Griffin Moon lander passes key tests", "zh-Hant": "Griffin 月球著陸器通過關鍵測試", "zh-Hans": "Griffin 月球着陆器通过关键测试" }, "body": { "en": "The robotic Griffin lunar lander has passed a host of critical tests ahead of its first Moon mission, scheduled to launch later this year. Another working lander adds a way to deliver cargo to the lunar surface.", "zh-Hant": "無人的 Griffin 月球著陸器已通過多項關鍵測試，準備執行首次登月任務，預計今年稍晚發射。多一台能用的著陸器，就多一種把貨物送上月面的方式。", "zh-Hans": "无人的 Griffin 月球着陆器已通过多项关键测试，准备执行首次登月任务，预计今年稍晚发射。多一台能用的着陆器，就多一种把货物送上月面的方式。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Space.com", "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-griffin-moon-lander-gets-put-to-the-test-space-photo-of-the-day-for-oct-23-2026" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-23-musk-says-6-to-8-launches", "date": "2026-10-23", "milestoneId": "uncrewed-lunar-landing", "title": { "en": "Musk says 6 to 8 launches, not 22", "zh-Hant": "Musk：登月只要 6 到 8 次發射，不是 22 次", "zh-Hans": "Musk：登月只要 6 到 8 次发射，不是 22 次" }, "body": { "en": "Elon Musk disputes NASA's estimate that a Starship Moon landing needs 22 launches, predicting 6 to 8 instead. Fewer launches would mean a faster, cheaper path to the Moon.", "zh-Hant": "Elon Musk 不同意 NASA「Starship 登月需要 22 次發射」的估計，他預測只要 6 到 8 次。發射次數越少，上月球的路就越快、越便宜。", "zh-Hans": "Elon Musk 不同意 NASA「Starship 登月需要 22 次发射」的估计，他预测只要 6 到 8 次。发射次数越少，上月球的路就越快、越便宜。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Teslarati", "url": "https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-nasa-starship-moon-landing/" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-22-moon-landing-may-need-22-starship", "date": "2026-10-22", "milestoneId": "orbital-refueling", "title": { "en": "Moon landing may need 22 Starship launches", "zh-Hant": "登月可能要 22 次 Starship 發射", "zh-Hans": "登月可能需要 22 次 Starship 发射" }, "body": { "en": "The latest estimate puts the number of Starship launches needed to support a Moon landing at 22, with numerous refuelings required for the lander. Refueling in orbit is the step to watch.", "zh-Hant": "最新估計指出，支援一次登月需要 22 次 Starship 發射，登月船需要多次加油。在軌道上加油是接下來要盯的一步。", "zh-Hans": "最新估计指出，支持一次登月需要 22 次 Starship 发射，登月船需要多次加油。在轨道上加油是接下来要盯的一步。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Ars Technica", "url": "https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/latest-estimate-for-starship-launches-required-to-support-a-moon-landing-22/" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-21-nasa-fires-rs-25-engine-for", "date": "2026-10-21", "milestoneId": "crewed-lunar-landing", "title": { "en": "NASA fires RS-25 engine for future Artemis flights", "zh-Hant": "NASA 試射 RS-25 引擎，備戰未來 Artemis", "zh-Hans": "NASA 试射 RS-25 发动机，备战未来 Artemis" }, "body": { "en": "On Oct. 21 NASA fired a developmental RS-25 engine for about 500 seconds, as long as the engines run during an SLS launch. These engines power the SLS rocket that carries Artemis crews toward the Moon.", "zh-Hant": "NASA 在 10 月 21 日試射一具開發中的 RS-25 引擎約 500 秒，和 SLS 發射時引擎運轉的時間一樣。這款引擎推動載 Artemis 太空人飛向月球的 SLS 火箭。", "zh-Hans": "NASA 在 10 月 21 日试射一台开发中的 RS-25 发动机约 500 秒，与 SLS 发射时发动机运行的时间相同。这款发动机推动搭载 Artemis 宇航员飞向月球的 SLS 火箭。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "NASA", "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/rs-25-engine-test-in-support-of-future-artemis-missions/" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-21-nasa-updates-artemis-iii-and-lander", "date": "2026-10-21", "milestoneId": "crewed-lunar-landing", "title": { "en": "NASA updates Artemis III and lander timelines", "zh-Hant": "NASA 更新 Artemis III 與登月船時程", "zh-Hans": "NASA 更新 Artemis III 与登月船时间表" }, "body": { "en": "NASA updated the Artemis III timeline and mapped out expected progress for SpaceX's and Blue Origin's Moon landers. These landers are what will put astronauts back on the Moon.", "zh-Hant": "NASA 更新了 Artemis III 的時程，並列出 SpaceX 與 Blue Origin 登月船預計的進度。要把太空人送回月面，靠的就是這兩艘登月船。", "zh-Hans": "NASA 更新了 Artemis III 的时间表，并列出 SpaceX 与 Blue Origin 登月船预计的进度。要把宇航员送回月面，靠的就是这两艘登月船。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Space.com", "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/when-will-spacex-and-blue-origin-fly-to-the-moon-nasa-reveals-lunar-lander-timelines-and-an-artemis-iii-update" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-20-rover-flip-to-carry-a-supercomputer", "date": "2026-10-20", "milestoneId": null, "title": { "en": "Rover FLIP to carry a supercomputer to the Moon", "zh-Hant": "FLIP 月球車要把超級電腦帶上月球", "zh-Hans": "FLIP 月球车要把超级计算机带上月球" }, "body": { "en": "A rover named FLIP is about to launch to the Moon carrying a supercomputer with AI. More machines working on the surface is part of building toward life there.", "zh-Hant": "一台名叫 FLIP 的月球車即將發射，車上搭載具備 AI 的超級電腦。月面上有更多機器在工作，是走向在月球生活的一部分。", "zh-Hans": "一台名叫 FLIP 的月球车即将发射，车上搭载具备 AI 的超级计算机。月面上有更多机器在工作，是走向在月球生活的一部分。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Space.com", "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/a-supercomputer-is-about-to-launch-to-the-moon-for-the-1st-time-aboard-a-rover-named-flip" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-20-spacex-to-try-catching-both-starship", "date": "2026-10-20", "milestoneId": "ship-catch", "title": { "en": "SpaceX to try catching both Starship stages", "zh-Hant": "SpaceX 下次試飛要同時接住兩節 Starship", "zh-Hans": "SpaceX 下次试飞要同时接住两级 Starship" }, "body": { "en": "Elon Musk says SpaceX will try to recover both Starship stages on the next test flight, expected in November. Catching the ship as well as the booster is the next step on the road to the Moon.", "zh-Hant": "馬斯克表示，SpaceX 下次試飛將嘗試回收 Starship 的兩節箭體，預計 11 月進行。連船體一起接住，是通往月球的下一步。", "zh-Hans": "马斯克表示，SpaceX 下次试飞将尝试回收 Starship 的两级箭体，预计 11 月进行。连船体一起接住，是通往月球的下一步。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Space.com", "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-will-attempt-1st-ever-double-starship-rocket-catch-on-next-test-launch-a-profound-technology-milestone-elon-musk-says" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-20-nasa-updates-progress-on-moon-base", "date": "2026-10-20", "milestoneId": "permanent-base", "title": { "en": "NASA updates progress on Moon Base rovers", "zh-Hant": "NASA 更新月球基地探測車進度", "zh-Hans": "NASA 更新月球基地月球车进度" }, "body": { "en": "NASA says crewed and robotic rovers will support early Moon Base work: technology demos, astronaut transport, terrain mapping and resource prospecting. Data from these missions will shape the systems astronauts need to live and work on the Moon.", "zh-Hant": "NASA 表示，載人與無人探測車將支援月球基地初期工作，包括技術展示、載送太空人、地形測繪與資源探勘。這些任務的資料，將決定太空人在月球生活與工作所需的系統。", "zh-Hans": "NASA 表示，载人与无人月球车将支持月球基地初期工作，包括技术演示、运送航天员、地形测绘与资源勘探。这些任务的数据，将决定航天员在月球生活与工作所需的系统。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "NASA", "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/missions/moon-base/nasa-provides-progress-update-on-moon-base-rovers/" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-20-esa-lunar-link-finishes-final-testing", "date": "2026-10-20", "milestoneId": null, "title": { "en": "ESA Lunar Link finishes final testing", "zh-Hant": "ESA 月球通訊模組 Lunar Link 完成測試", "zh-Hans": "ESA 月球通信模块 Lunar Link 完成测试" }, "body": { "en": "ESA's Lunar Link telecommunications element completed its final major integration and testing campaign at Thales Alenia Space in Cannes, France, and is ready for its next stage.", "zh-Hant": "ESA 的 Lunar Link 通訊模組已在法國坎城的 Thales Alenia Space 完成最後一輪大型整合與測試，準備進入下一階段。", "zh-Hans": "ESA 的 Lunar Link 通信模块已在法国戛纳的 Thales Alenia Space 完成最后一轮大型整合与测试，准备进入下一阶段。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "ESA", "url": "https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Lunar_Link_complete_and_ready_for_a_new_adventure" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-15-roadster-hop", "date": "2026-10-15", "milestoneId": null, "title": { "en": "Tesla Roadster hops on thrusters, uncrewed", "zh-Hant": "Tesla Roadster 無人推進器跳躍示範", "zh-Hans": "Tesla Roadster 无人推进器跳跃演示" }, "body": { "en": "The 2018 'SpaceX package' promise finally showed up as an uncrewed thruster hop at McGregor. Production target: 2028.", "zh-Hant": "2018 年承諾的「SpaceX 套件」終於以無人推進器跳躍亮相，地點是 McGregor。量產目標 2028。", "zh-Hans": "2018 年承诺的“SpaceX 套件”终于以无人推进器跳跃亮相，地点是 McGregor。量产目标 2028。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "TechCrunch", "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/" } ] }, { "id": "2026-10-10-flight15", "date": "2026-10-10", "milestoneId": "ship-catch", "title": { "en": "Next: catch the ship", "zh-Hant": "下一步：接住船體", "zh-Hans": "下一步：接住船体" }, "body": { "en": "Musk: Flight 15 \"hopefully in 4-6 weeks\", aiming for the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket.", "zh-Hant": "馬斯克：Flight 15「希望 4 到 6 週內」，目標是第一次完整回收軌道級火箭。", "zh-Hans": "马斯克：Flight 15“希望 4 到 6 周内”，目标是第一次完整回收轨道级火箭。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Tesla North", "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/10/elon-targets-starship-flight-15-ship-catch-in-4-6-weeks" } ] }, { "id": "2026-09-28-flight14-orbit", "date": "2026-09-28", "milestoneId": "starship-orbit", "title": { "en": "Starship reached orbit", "zh-Hant": "Starship 進入軌道", "zh-Hans": "Starship 进入轨道" }, "body": { "en": "Flight 14 made orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Milestone 2 of 8 complete.", "zh-Hant": "Flight 14 進入軌道並放出 26 顆 Starlink V3 衛星。8 個里程碑完成第 2 個。", "zh-Hans": "Flight 14 进入轨道并释放 26 颗 Starlink V3 卫星。8 个里程碑完成第 2 个。" }, "sources": [ { "name": "Astronomy.com", "url": "https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/" } ] } ] }