When can people live on the Moon?
Our best estimate: around 2050. Here's every step on the way, a source for each one, and exactly how we got the number.
~2050
8 milestones to a Moon city
- 01
Humans fly around the Moon
Done Apr 10, 2026SourcesNASA
- 02
Starship reaches orbit
Done Sep 28, 2026SourcesAstronomy.comSatellite Today
- 03
Tower catches the ship
Not yet- Official target
- Nov 2026Elon Musk, said on Oct 10, 2026
Flight 15 hopefully in 4-6 weeks
- Our estimate
- early 2027
SourcesTesla North
- 04
Refueling in orbit
Not yet- Official target
- Dec 2026NASA (planning)
- Our estimate
- 2027–2028
SourcesWikipedia
- 05
Starship lands on the Moon (uncrewed)
Not yet- Official target
- Mar 2027SpaceX (to investors, via WSJ), said on Feb 6, 2026
- Our estimate
- mid 2028
SourcesTime
- 06
Humans walk on the Moon again
Not yet- Official target
- 2028NASA (Artemis IV), said on Feb 27, 2026
- Our estimate
- 2029–2030
SourcesCNN via KVIA
- 07
People live at a Moon base
Not yet- Official target
- 2032NASA (Moon base phase 3), said on May 26, 2026
- Our estimate
- 2035–2038
SourcesFOX6BNN Bloomberg
- 08
A Moon city opens to everyone
Not yet- Official target
- 2036Elon Musk (X post), said on Feb 8, 2026
SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years
- Our estimate
- ~2050
SourcesTimeThe Space Review
How we got the number
Big space goals almost always run late. So we take each official target and stretch it by how late Elon Musk's past public promises actually turned out.
Estimate = date of the claim + (promised date − date of the claim) × delay
The delay is 2.37: the median across 13 public promises that were later delivered. Promises that were cancelled or never delivered aren't counted, so the real delay is probably longer.
Example: in February 2026 Musk said a self-growing Moon city could happen in under 10 years. 10 years × 2.37 is about 24 years, which lands around 2050.
If things move faster than history suggests (× 1.5), it's 2041. Using only SpaceX's own record (× 3.03), it's 2056.
We recalculate whenever a milestone is completed or an official timeline changes.
Latest
Griffin Moon lander passes key tests
The robotic Griffin lunar lander has passed a host of critical tests ahead of its first Moon mission, scheduled to launch later this year. Another working lander adds a way to deliver cargo to the lunar surface.
SourcesSpace.com
Musk says 6 to 8 launches, not 22
Elon Musk disputes NASA's estimate that a Starship Moon landing needs 22 launches, predicting 6 to 8 instead. Fewer launches would mean a faster, cheaper path to the Moon.
MilestoneStarship lands on the Moon (uncrewed)
SourcesTeslarati
Moon landing may need 22 Starship launches
The latest estimate puts the number of Starship launches needed to support a Moon landing at 22, with numerous refuelings required for the lander. Refueling in orbit is the step to watch.
MilestoneRefueling in orbit
SourcesArs Technica
NASA fires RS-25 engine for future Artemis flights
On Oct. 21 NASA fired a developmental RS-25 engine for about 500 seconds, as long as the engines run during an SLS launch. These engines power the SLS rocket that carries Artemis crews toward the Moon.
MilestoneHumans walk on the Moon again
SourcesNASA
NASA updates Artemis III and lander timelines
NASA updated the Artemis III timeline and mapped out expected progress for SpaceX's and Blue Origin's Moon landers. These landers are what will put astronauts back on the Moon.
MilestoneHumans walk on the Moon again
SourcesSpace.com
Rover FLIP to carry a supercomputer to the Moon
A rover named FLIP is about to launch to the Moon carrying a supercomputer with AI. More machines working on the surface is part of building toward life there.
SourcesSpace.com
SpaceX to try catching both Starship stages
Elon Musk says SpaceX will try to recover both Starship stages on the next test flight, expected in November. Catching the ship as well as the booster is the next step on the road to the Moon.
MilestoneTower catches the ship
SourcesSpace.com
NASA updates progress on Moon Base rovers
NASA says crewed and robotic rovers will support early Moon Base work: technology demos, astronaut transport, terrain mapping and resource prospecting. Data from these missions will shape the systems astronauts need to live and work on the Moon.
MilestonePeople live at a Moon base
SourcesNASA
ESA Lunar Link finishes final testing
ESA's Lunar Link telecommunications element completed its final major integration and testing campaign at Thales Alenia Space in Cannes, France, and is ready for its next stage.
SourcesESA
Tesla Roadster hops on thrusters, uncrewed
The 2018 'SpaceX package' promise finally showed up as an uncrewed thruster hop at McGregor. Production target: 2028.
SourcesTechCrunch
Next: catch the ship
Musk: Flight 15 "hopefully in 4-6 weeks", aiming for the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket.
MilestoneTower catches the ship
SourcesTesla North
Starship reached orbit
Flight 14 made orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Milestone 2 of 8 complete.
MilestoneStarship reaches orbit
SourcesAstronomy.com
Estimates, not promises. MoonPass is not affiliated with or endorsed by SpaceX, NASA, Tesla or Blue Origin.
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